Ukraine – Armenia – Russia – World War III?

Russian version

It seems that there is no reason to worry. The latest news from Armenia is extremely positive: joining the EAEU, the Pope’s speech along with the EU resolution on the genocide of the Armenian people in the Ottoman Empire. However our guest remains unpersuadable. If the dangerous trend in the development of relations between Russia and the countries of Southeast Asia is not to be changed, everything will be set on fire and all past geopolitical crises will seem insignificant.

ArbakShaumianovichKhachatrian, ex-Councilorof the President of the Republic of Armenia, ex-Councilor of the High Commissioner for Human Rights in the Russian Federation, an independent human rights advocate and a regular guest of our newspaper,whohas repeatedly made caustic remarks about most burning issues. His comments are always sharp and honest as ArbakKhachatrian has never placed his personal safety and comfort above national interests. He wrote his first open letters to Vladimir Putin in 2003-2004 from Lefortovo prison while sentenced for a forgedaccusation fabricated by the Government of Armenia of those times.

“Covering its political incompetence by power or gas cutoffs or by embargos ontangerines and vine is unworthy of a civilized state. Most decisions are made for the sake of publicity and lead only to temporary local effect. It has become apparent that the unpalatable actions in Ajaria,Abkhazia, Transdniestria, weapon supplies to Syria will only do much harm to Russia. The existing geopolitical problems between other states such as China and Japan, Iran and Azerbaijan et cetera are not used strategically in favor of Russia. I cannot blame the acting functionaries as solving such urgent problems is not within the essence of their capacity. Each political upstart with his actions and entourage (security, cars, mansions, foreign bank accounts) shows off the supremacy over ordinary people and the law.Political, judicial and party decisions are made just for show. An order has become the basis of each decision. The legislative power is exercised by famous sportsmen, celebrities, doctors rather than by professionals... 

…The most serious danger for Russia is the presence of those “rich politicians”in your inner circle who in their core are nothing more but political harlots while decent people cannot express their mind openly; they are either marginalized or eliminated…

… In January 2003 I reported to you about the actions of several functionaries which could engender a crisis in the relations between Russia and some countries of the CIS. That letter contained a prognosis concerning the relations with Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and what is the most painful for me - with Armenia (the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh). The local rulers and their federal curators were to blame for that. In perspective there might be also such problems as the Caspian oil and gas pipelines. The same problems are loomingin Ukraine where the growth of anti-Russian moods can be observed…”

And now it is 2015. The ISIL controls the territory of three countries of Southwest Asia inhabited by eight million people. Five million people live in Novorossia. Georgia is a half-hostile state:

- in 2003 when I warned of Georgia, Syria, Ukraine everybody laughed. Nowadays nobody is laughing. However, the genuine reasons of the existing local and global crises are far from being solved. They will never be solved until the outdated libertarian economic model is still in operation and “the golden billion” rules the world while 70% of the world’s population suffers from hunger. The Russian economy, its banking sphere follow this model with the diligence of a studious pupil. We will suffer one defeat after another until the economy meets the needs of all the society rather than the interests of the “chosen ones”. No matter what is the ideology – the Salafism of the ISIL, the nationalism of the banderovtsi in Ukraine or the Houthis in Yemen – satisfied people will never topple their government.

The wrong foreign-policy directions lead to unsatisfactory and losing results. The diplomats repeat over and over again that Russia is deeply preoccupied with the enlargement of NATO to the East. So, what is going on now? The USA military exercises in Ukraine. However nobody is in a hurry to make any conclusions as well as to assume the responsibility for the fallacious strategy in relationship with an originally amicable state. The failure in the relationship between Russia and Armenia is the next in line after the ruined Russian-Ukrainian relationship.

Despite the warnings of the burning world neither Russia nor Armenia are going to change the “state strategy”. That is why Khachatrian is writing an Open letter to the head of state in order to emphasize that this is the last chance:

“Esteemed Vladimir Vladimirovich!

More than ten years ago, I warned you about coming challenges. To my regret, all those anxieties have come true. Since then the situation in the world and in the country has aggravated even more. I do not question your personal competence in any way as well as the fact that in your actions you are guided by national interests, first of all. However, some of your minions form that very mire in which all the good and right intentions stick. Their interests are limited by personal benefits and enrichment. I deeply care about the Russian people and Russia itself.

The results of the actions of many functionaries are catastrophic. In recent years, hundreds of millions of dollars have been invested into the economy and businesses of Ukraine. Some of them were invested into real projects while others were used to buy the loyalty of Ukrainian politicians. Barack Obama acknowledged that the USA spent five billion dollars for the resolution of “the Ukrainian issue”. It is almost one hundred times less. The result was “the Maidan”, a coup d’état and the bloody chaos in the country. It turns that the American functionaries who are usually called dull have worked much more efficiently rather than your notorious “efficient managers”.

No secret that since under your government Russia started getting stronger and began to cause problems  for the West  the American and European politicians serving the local oligarchy set a goal to weaken our country  as much as possible. The best way is to draw Russia into a military conflict waged on its borders. Ten years ago, I warned you that a fire could blaze up in Ukraine. So it happened. The same time I said that Armenia could become the next objective.

The situations in Ukraine and Armenia are as like as two peas. In many ways this is the result of the actions of the Russian functionaries. Their only method is to buy the loyalty of local authorities by payoffs and dependency. This is the way of a street vendor bribing a bribable police officer. And this is the level of the Russian diplomacy. They do not understand that a corrupt person is always ready to sell out and betray for the sake of a new profit.

This is only one side of the problem. The main problem is that while the politicians in these countries are thriving people are getting poorer. People have to live from hand to mouth or look for jobs abroad. For example, in Russia itself. However they are not welcome here, they are called guest workers and treated as the lower class. The Russian people believe that “Russia supplies you with everything at low prices that is why you owe us”. However, they do not understand that the supplies sink inside the pockets of the local rulers. The people in Armenia and Ukraine see the situation from the different point of view: Russia does not help the people but its protégés. This is the reason for anti-Russian moods and the desire to go anywhere from Russia, would that be Europe, they are not welcome in Europe too but people still do not know about it. This social tension only meets the interests of the USA as Russia itself does their work by pushing away amicable nations bribing their thievish rulers.

Why do I call your attention to Armenia? I am afraid it is the immediate goal for waging another “Mandan-like” crisis. Armenia is essentially important for Russia as its advanced post in the Caucasus and in Transcaucasia. The Russian troops are there. The Russian troops defend the Armenian borders. However, Armenia is extremely vulnerable due to the deep-rooted conflict with Azerbaijan and a simmering conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh which may start boiling at any moment. In order to make Russia fight on two fronts the producers of color revolutions from the West will do their best in order to kindle this fire. All the signs – the same as in Ukraine - have already become apparent. There are impoverished people looking for jobs abroad (60% of Armenians left the motherland in search of a living). There are overly corrupted authorities getting bribes from Moscow. There is a growing discontent with Russia and its policies. And the clumsy moves of the so called Russian “diplomats” only aggravate the situation.

It is obvious that Russia cannot reject the contacts with Azerbaijan. But it is necessary to understand that Moscow is not the priority of Baku foreign policy and it never will be. The top priority of Azerbaijan lies with Turkey! “The Turkish Stream” which is presented in Russia as a great victory is in fact a delayed-action mine. The project promises economic benefits. However the difference between a handheld and a statesman is that the latter is capable to look farther ahead immediate receipts. The fraternization between Russia and Turkey hurts Armenia deeply. People there feel betrayed and they feel a rising menace. What will be the use of the pipeline (which is yet to be constructed) if a war starts in Armenia? Russia will not be an ally of Armenia in that war as it will be the Russian policy that unleashes it .Is Russia strong enough to fight on two fronts? Or will it be forced to leave Transcaucasia and leave the strategically important region to its enemies?

Vladimir Vladimirovich!

The existing system of government does not provide an access to high-ranking positions for really intelligent and efficient people. There are plenty of them in Russia. Instead of them several key posts are occupied by talentless, passive and just narrow-minded moneymakers the main merit of whom is that they are members of the team. They cannot even boast their personal loyalty to you as they are loyal only to their own interests and will betray you at the first hint of trouble.

Russia has a lot of mega problems to solve. The intense rivalry with the West has consolidated the Russian people. In these circumstances, Vladimir Vladimirovich, you have a unique opportunity thanks to the public support to destroy the outdated basic system and to create a new one which will guarantee a place for real professionals and statesman. If not to do it now the opportunity will be lost forever.

History does not give one the second try”.

While we were preparing this article for publication the important events that have been happening in the world only proved the rightness of ArbakKhachatrian. Not to provide any comment on them is a crime against the people of Russia and Armenia.

 The direct line with the President of Russia:

- Once I was shocked by the phrase of Boris Gryzlov: “we will support any candidate introduced by Putin”. What a shame! He nearly confessed his meaninglessness. If Mr.Putin “introduced his horse” into the Senate like Caligula did once in order to emphasize the meaninglessness of the Senate, Mr.Gryzlov would vote for the horse with the same enthusiasm.

What can Mr.Putindo with such entourage? Let’s consider these notorious “direct lines with the President”. He definitely seems a good tsar who solves the problem of water supply in a small town, helps a schoolboy to buy a bicycle and a man to choose the breed of a dog for his wife. If the President has to solve such issues then the local posts are occupied by talentless and worthless people who cannot do anything and do not want to do anything themselves.

This is the problem of the present system in Russia. Nobody wants to do anything until a private interest appears.Neither ministers, nor local governors do their duties. They just make a living. They do not perceive their posts as the means of serving people and the country. They regard it only as the means of improving their welfare. Nothing can change until such people remain in power. The money assigned by government for the economic development will only settle in their bottomless pockets and get transferred to western bank accounts. All of these state officials and businessmen parasitizing on the state budget do not consider their future in Russia. Their only goalis to steal as much as possible and to flee abroad. Do you seriously believe they might build something in this country? Whatfor?

And getting back to the “direct lines” – they clearly fit into the system of propaganda and information war waged in its acute phase. The system that was aimed at the escalation of hatred in the society to an unprecedented level.But what will these information war soldiers do when the common sense prevails and the world turns around? The sown seeds of hatred are not quick to uproot, these weeds have straggled over the whole planet.

“The offshore amnesty”

- The methods stay the same. The government is still taking care of the fortunes of major business rather than of the wellbeing of its citizens. When financial crisis occurred whom did the government offer its help? To the banks which in many ways had provoked the mentioned crisis! Nobody is going to help ordinary people who suffered the most from the crisis. People are left on their own. Save yourself as you wish.

The amnesty of capitals belongs to the same type of policy. The illicitly acquired castles in Côte d’Azur are legalized while no help is provided for the small businesses which are in decline because it is impossible to get any credit even with the present predatory interest rate without a 50% payoff.

This system is a shame. It is completely the same policy that the authorities used to conduct in Ukraine and that they still do in Armenia. They buy the loyalty of the oligarchs without caring about the needs of people. However oligarchs do not make a country. At the slightest danger they will flee to the West where they keep their savings. The government will have to face its people and there will be hardly an opportunity to escape.

I say it again. All these oligarchs and functionaries parasitizing on power are guilty but it is the system which engendered them that is to blame. The system, not people, designs the rules of the game. Set other human rules and all these parasites will disappear as in its core a man to a man is a friend and a brother, not the wolf as it is imposed today. The human nature is far more powerful. Just give it some credit.

Weapons that kill

Before his Farwell tour in Moscow the best songster of the XX century (according to the joint poll by the Time and the CNN in 1998) Charles Aznavour in his piercing article in le Monde “The Armenian Genocide – one hundred years of loneliness” reproaches “the major powers that  got used to subject moral to private interests”. They are responsible for the fact that such catastrophes happen again. Aznavourclaimed that “the weapons vendors have become the best friends of the petroleum dictatorship of Azerbaijan”. “Since the beginning of the year each week a young man dies in between Karabakh and Azerbaijan and it is breaking my heart”.

ArbakKhachatrian reminds that the Russian weapons in Azerbaijan are already in action:

- Four years ago I told you that this would lead to a bad end. The intensity of the grenade launcher and mortar skirmish between the RNK and Azerbaijan can be compared to the fiercest battles between the military forces of Ukraine and the volunteer corps of Novorossia. People die every day. It has already started. These are the first sparks. The worst for Russia is that an Armenian soldier at the borderline is aware that he may be killed from the Russian weapons. However for the Russian diplomacy and state corporations it is still “just business “. An instant profit will lead to the loss of a strategic partner like always. The partnership is for profit not for peace. Is that the face of the Russian diplomacy?

It is necessary to see beyond one’s nose! Even the recent lessons have not taught anything our diplomats. Let us take the return of the Crimea. Why does the permanent rivalry of Russia and the Ottoman Empire on this bridgehead escape the analysis of the further strategy? By choosing Turkey a strategic partner for the construction of a pipeline we will face the problems which seem to arise from nowhere but in fact have deep historic roots. We should remember about it so not be surprised thereafter. Putin had no option in case of “the Crimean spring” but it was preceded by 20 years of failed policy in Ukraine as we can see it now. That is what I am talking about. Take a broad view, do not make the same mistakes again, place the welfare of people higher than instant interests and you will succeed.

That is why I am sure that it is impossible to settle the issue of the penance of the successors of the Ottoman Empire for the genocide of the Armenian people by means of traditional diplomacy. Only the people of Turkey, not the government, can decide that right time for a confession has come, that people decide that it is time to go on so that nothing similar will ever happen again. It will show their strength to confess the mistakes of the past. And only the Armenians have the right to accept it and to forgive. The problem of Nagorno-Karabakh cannot be solved by “the gunboat diplomacy”. Only the reestablishment of the economic ties between nation and public diplomacy can heal this wound.

From the editor

Not long ago we have observed the method proposed by Khachatrianin action on the international arena also known as "reset" performed by Sergey Lavrov and Hillary Clinton, but it did not work. It did not succeed as it was an initiative of the governments. Now it is time for unofficial public diplomacy. Only nations can reunite and decide their fate themselves. We call for initiative and not indifferent people to join the call of ArbakKhachatrian. Youcandoit. Whoelseifnotyou?